How voter sentiments could shape the outcome of Maharashtra Elections 2024

The stage is set for Maharashtra Elections 2024 as the dates are approaching. In the last two years, the political landscape of the state has witnessed major changes with both-Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party-split. Voters have now been put in a predicament as parties have regrouped.

Understanding how these changes impact voter sentiment can reveal much about the direction the state may take in the upcoming Maharashtra Elections 2024.

The context of division: Shiv Sena and NCP splits

One of the most significant changes in Maharashtra's political landscape is the split within the Shiv Sena. Previously led by Uddhav Thackeray, the Shiv Sena has split into two factions: the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, who is now the state's Chief Minister. This split has upset traditional Shiv Sena voters, creating concerns about the party's core character and direction.

Similarly, the NCP has had internal differences, with one part led by Sharad Pawar and the other by Ajit Pawar, who joined the ruling alliance alongside the BJP. For decades, the NCP has maintained a consistent voter base, notably in rural Maharashtra, where the Pawar family is deeply rooted. However, the separation has created confusion among voters about the party's vision and leadership.

How voter sentiments could shape polls

Mid-day spoke to experts to understand the impact of the split on the voters and how it could sway the upcoming elections.

Ritwik Mehta, the founder of think tank Niti Tantra and political strategist, told mid-day that among the two Senas, the Eknath Shinde-led faction performed better in the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 and NCP-SP was able to still retain their voters.

"The Lok Sabha 2024 results show that Shiv Sena voters are divided between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT) though Shiv Sena had a much better performance and strike rate. SS (UBT) contested 21 seats and won 9 while Shiv Sena contested 15 and won 7 seats. In 13 straight fights between Shiv Sena and Shiv Sena (UBT), the former won 7 while the latter won only 6. This shows that Eknath Shinde was able to pull a large number of cadre and traditional voters to his party while Shiv Sena (UBT) was dependent on Congress's Muslim vote bank," he said.

Speaking about the split in NCP, Mehta said, "NCP (SP) comes out to be the biggest winner. The party contested 10 seats and won 8 while NCP contested 4 and won only 1. This clearly shows that the cadre as well as the voters of NCP are still with Sharad Pawar and will continue to do so as many such surveys recently show."

"The fragmentation has dented Sena (UBT) more than the NCP," Mehta said adding "But this was all in Lok Sabha, it's the time for Assembly elections where polls are fought at hyper-local issues and individual faces as well."

Meanwhile, political analyst Abhay Deshpande observed that the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 was the first time people got to voice their mandate and things may play out differently during Maharashtra Elections 2024.

Deshpande, speaking to mid-day, said, "The separation of the NCP from Sharad Pawar and the Shiv Sena from the Thackeray family has sparked widespread voter support, affecting the political scene in Maharashtra. Furthermore, growing dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Narendra Modi over topics such as the CAA-NRC has resulted in a consolidation of Muslim voters leaning towards the opposition. Constitutional amendments have also helped to consolidate Dalit support, while ongoing Maratha quota protests have strengthened the Maha Vikas Aghadi's (MVA) appeal. However, the bigger picture shows a narrow margin between the MVA and Mahayuti alliances, with only over 200,000 votes separating them across Maharashtra."

Assembly and Lok Sabha elections have different voting patterns and different issues are discussed. The patterns are bound to change, he said and added that based on the latest available data, MVA is leading in 150 assembly segments and Mahayuti is not far from behind.

Deshpande added that the rebel leaders, who have defected to other parties, will decide the outcome of the election.

"It is yet to be gauged as to how strong sentiments of anti-incumbency are against the leaders who ‘betrayed' their party the leaders defected due to BJP driving a wedge," said the political analyst.

He said the canvas is smaller in Maharashtra Elections 2024, and the candidates have more weight over the party.

"Based on the Haryana elections, candidates who bring 1,000 to 2,000 changed the game. While the two states have different conditions, depending on how firm the rebels remain in the fray will be an important issue. It can only be clear after November 3," he said.

Infrastructure, ladki bahin hit voter sentiment

When asked whether the infrastructural upgrades and big pocket inaugurations like Coastal Road, Mumbai Metro Lines 7A, 3 and 11 and similar projects across the state will have any impact on Maharashtra Elections 2024, Deepak Pawar, political analyst and professor at Mumbai University, said that the Mahayuti-more so the BJP-has set the narrative that the saffron party has worked towards development which had come to a halt during Uddhav Thackeray's term as a Chief Minister during Covid.

"Despite the Mumbai Metro ridership, especially on Line 7A, not having hit a significant number of ridership and metro lines not having last-mile connectivity, the BJP has set the narrative the Thackeray's MVA government purposely halted development works, unlike the party. BJP claims to be pro-development and the elections and post-election period will be optimal to conduct a serious evaluation of the Coastal Road, the metro line," Pawar said.

He added that a critical understanding of such projects' beneficiaries is crucial.

"If the common person's travel is not going to change, and it benefits only car users; there is a serious need to rethink," Pawar said.

Pawar added, "In the coming years, the landscape of elections will completely move towards urban areas and then questions on road connectivity, metro, etc will become an important field of discussion."

Meanwhile, Deshpande said that the urban voters, unlike the divide and rule, believed in the principle of provide and rule.

"Infrastructure projects will have an impact on the poll results since urban voters cast their ballots based on what amenities they received. However, emotional issues will crop up -like Gujarat snatching projects from Maharashtra, which began after Vedanta Foxconn, Mumbai will be broken etc will dominate the campaign. However, it won't be as effective as concrete infrastructural projects," he said.

Secondly, under the Ladki Bahin scheme, over 2 crore women have received money for the next three to four months' sum. "The scheme's impact is seen in rural areas; women claim the money as rightfully theirs. Due to the code of conduct, the government released funds sufficient for October, November which help people," said Deshpande.

He said that the aspirational crowd can avail stipend program meanwhile, they have also launched a scheme wherein old persons who wish to go on pilgrimage

"While the media did not discuss this much, the pilgrimage scheme for senior citizens-wherein the government provides tickets to one pilgrimage site. This scheme is primarily for those who complain that their children don't give them money," said Deshpande.

The Raj Thackeray factor: A new challenger

Raj Thackeray, the founder of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), has emerged on the political scene, complicating election dynamics. Raj Thackeray, well-known for his Marathi pride agenda, may have an impact on voter sentiment, particularly among those who share his strong regional focus. His re-entry has sparked debate among people who may have been disillusioned with the Shiv Sena divide and seek a new alternative. While his MNS has yet to achieve big election successes, his charisma and regional allegiance may appeal to voters seeking stability and clarity amid Shiv Sena disputes.

When asked about his opinion on MNS' resurfacing, Mehta said, "After giving full support to Mahayuti during Lok Sabha elections, Raj Thackeray's MNS Is going to contest independently in the upcoming elections. MNS is strong only in Mumbai and Nashik region. In Mumbai, the MNS leaders will pull the Marathi voters, probably cutting into the Shiv Sena (UBT) votes and in Nashik, will also dent into some Maratha voters. Mahim will witness a high-voltage drama where Raj's son Amit Thackeray is going to contest and I think Raj will make sure that his son wins his first battle. In Mumbai, the BJP's core vote bank is the North Indian, Gujarati and Marwadi communities. So in seats like Versova, Bhandup West, etc where the Marathi community is more and doesn't vote for the BJP, the MNS will cut into Shiv Sena (UBT) votes and help BJP ultimately."

Pawar, speaking to the newspaper, had said that he does not believe Raj Thackeray entering the fray will have any impact on Maharashtra Elections 2024. "In May, he announced that he would support PM Modi unconditionally. What happened in the months after that was that he was going solo in assembly polls. I believe he and Mahayuti partners have joined forces and in assembly segments where MVA is likely to win, the MNS will divide its vote bank," he said.

Maratha quota & Dhangar community protest

When asked about how Manoj Jarange entering the fray will impact the Maharashtra Elections 2024, Deepak Pawar said that the quota activist had said that after both alliances finalise their candidates, he will release his list.

"When Jarange began his protest and the movement, rumours were rife that Sharad Pawar was backing him, however, with the image that has emerged in last year, Eknath Shinde seems to be backing him. CM Shinde is now walking a tightrope having to manage Mahayuti and Jarange while aiming to outshine MVA," he said.

"The leaders fielded by Jarange, instead of winning some seats in Marathwada and western region, can bring down other parties' candidates if they have set their aim on any," he added.

Pawar said that the Maratha quota activist and his followers are miffed with Devendra Fadnavis which again is based on caste dynamics within a community.

However, Jarange's fight for Marathas to be included as Kunbis and therefore in the OBC category won't be possible since it is a Constitutional battle, he added.

While speaking about whether any national issues would affect Maharashtra Elections 2024, Abhay Deshpande noted that one factor was unaccounted for in previous polls-The Uniform Civil Code.

"In conversations with leaders in Nandurbar, it emerged that the impact of the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) on the election results had been overlooked. Leaders noted that there was a strong belief among the tribal population that the UCC would threaten their special rights and protections. Nandurbar, being a region with a significant tribal demographic, felt the influence of this issue keenly," he said.

Deshpande further speaking said that the messaging was widely circulated in the ST constituencies. The second major subject of discussion, he said, in the tribal areas of Maharashtra is the inclusion of the Dhangar community in the ST category.

"In constituencies with predominantly tribal populations, the issue of the Dhangar community's inclusion in the ST category has escalated. Maharashtra Deputy Speaker Nirhari Zirwal of ruling Mahayuti and other tribal leaders had jumped off Mantralaya's third floor over this issue. This is a sentimental issue, some don't want inclusion of Dhangar community in ST category; it will be deciding factor on who wins in tribal areas," he said.

An election defined by complexity and change

As Maharashtra voters go to the polls, they have more options and obstacles than in past elections. The political landscape has changed as a result of the Shiv Sena and NCP split, Raj Thackeray's re-emergence, and altering economic priorities. This election could be a watershed moment, with voters deciding whether to stick to established party affiliations or explore new political possibilities.

In a state as diverse as Maharashtra, these variations in voter mood would likely influence the election results. It is unclear if voters will support established legacies or take a risk on new alliances and competitors.