Maharashtra elections 2024: Unprecedented period in Maharashtra politics as state votes today, national parties rely on regional parties to win your vote

(From left) Congress state president Nana Patole, NCP-SP chief Sharad Pawar, and Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray. File pic

Today's Assembly elections will be a defining moment for Maharashtra, its major political parties and their respective leaders who have altered the state politics in an unprecedented manner in the past five years. Having an element of unpredictability, thanks to many players who have put aside their respective ideologies to form alliances, the campaign for 288 seats saw a fierce battle to grab power by way of portraying each other as villains. Apart from drawing the voters' attention with "like never before" promises of cash handouts and freebies, religion and caste identity overshadowed the agenda of economic progress and sectoral development.

(From left) Congress state president Nana Patole, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray, NCP-SP chief Sharad Pawar and Congress leader Prithviraj Chavan during a press conference last month. File Pic/Sayyed Sameer Abedi

Parties began from where they left off in the Lok Sabha elections, which tipped the majority in Maha Vikas Aghadi's favour, with Congress on top. Jostling and shoving dominated the Assembly seat-sharing exercise in both the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and the BJP-led Mahayuti camps. Judging by the number of seats they are contesting, it seems that the two national parties - Congress and BJP, the principal rivals in the electoral field - are vying for the top spot. It is believed that both Congress and BJP aim to outperform their respective alliance partners, hoping to steer state politics into a bipolar mode, reducing regional allies to minor players.

(From left) DyCM Devendra Fadnavis, CM Eknath Shinde, and DyCM Ajit Pawar during a press conference last month. File Pic/Shadab Khan

In the Lok Sabha, Congress achieved a quantum leap, with Maharashtra giving it the highest number of MPs in the country. This boosted the morale of the party's state leadership, which had been ridiculed for winning only two MPs in 2014 and just one in 2019. Congress's regained self-esteem and newfound confidence have, however, caused some friction within the MVA, particularly with Shiv Sena (UBT).

Making up

For BJP, the Lok Sabha verdict meant a shocking drop in a state that had powered the Modi government twice in succession. The party and its ideological parent, the RSS, swung into action immediately after the debacle. Recently, the BJP's leadership claimed to have negated the "Save Constitution" narrative the MVA had benefited from in the Lok Sabha. Being the state's single-largest party with a haul of over 100 MLAs each in the past two elections, the BJP has planned to win more than its allies and rivals. Its seat share is much bigger than the allies and opponents.

For Shinde Sena and Ajit Pawar's NCP, the field is not that wide. Yet, Shinde relies heavily on "dole out" to win as many seats as he has been given. Ajit Pawar's NCP has been restricted to even smaller numbers. He has pinned high hopes on a private election management agency he had hired after the Lok Sabha elections. MVA has kept up with the Lok Sabha campaign but tweaked it by adding the guarantees to counter the euphoria Mahayuti's ‘Ladki Bahin' had created. People have heard arguments over ‘failed' and ‘successful' guarantees that were given by the BJP-Mahayuti and Congress-led state governments where similar schemes were announced ahead of polls.

Contests within

In MVA, Congress has a competition with Sharad Pawar's NCP-SP and Uddhav Thackeray's Sena that also rallies against a breakaway Sena (Shinde). Ajit Pawar's NCP seemed to have set a minimal target for itself, barring a prestigious duel between the DyCM and his nephew Yugendra in the Pawars' native Baramati. Not just the Baramati family feud, these elections have seen other families break up too. Brother and sister, brother and brother, husband and wife, father and daughter, uncles and nephews are up against each other. In some places, it looked like an attempt to keep the seat in the family, party affiliation notwithstanding, because it matters most in power politics and allied activities. Four members of the senior minister's family, including his former MP daughter, are contesting from four different segments in Nandurbar district. Three brothers represent different parties. The daughter is contesting as an independent.

Warring cousins

On the party front, two estranged cousins will again be testing themselves against each other. Raj Thackeray's MNS has been more aggressive than before while putting up a solo fight. MNS is considered a vote cutter that has helped Uddhav Thackeray's rival parties. As it happened in the past elections, more so in 2009 when Raj was at his peak, MNS is expected to dent MVA more rather than Mahayuti, in which it has a friend in BJP. Raj has strongly criticised CM Eknath Shinde calling him out for stealing the Sena symbol and party which he said was late Balasaheb Thackeray's property. Here, the estranged cousins appeared on the same page. In addition to MNS, AIMIM, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, a third front of smaller parties Parivartan Mahashakti and other small outfits complete the voter cutters' order.

Fate of leaders

The Assembly poll will determine the importance and define the roles of the leading characters of the major parties. It will be a turning point for BJP's two-time CM, Devendra Fadnavis, who has worked as deputy CM since June 2022. If BJP-Mahayuti wins and makes a government, the high command will have to consider a popular choice Fadnavis, among others, if any, for the CM's post. If he is not chosen for the top job, the party will have to rehabilitate him in a respectful high position, either in the Union government or in the party national organisation. Shinde's fate will hang in the balance, in Mahayuti's win or defeat. Actually, he is fighting two battles at the same time. One within the alliance and the other against Uddhav Thackeray for acquiring a brand of ‘original Sena' in the people's court. Ajit Pawar's NCP is at the mercy of the voters who will prefer him over his uncle. The verdict will measure his hold against the uncle's and show him which way to go - to stay firm with the BJP, keep his independent existence intact, or return home if the senior hasn't burnt the bridge yet.

In Congress, winning more seats than allies will mean internal chaos. With half a dozen claimants for the CM's post, the high command will have a tough task at hand. What applies to Shinde also goes for Uddhav Thackeray as far as the battle for ‘original Sena' in the voters' court is concerned. For fulfilling his aspirations to head the state again, Thackeray's numbers and his tacit understanding with the Congress, with which he appeared to be on the same page on many issues, will matter most. But in case, Sharad Pawar is in a commanding position, we will see a different ball game. The Pawar camp has concentrated more on taking the battle into the rivals' citadel, especially where the BJP had emerged in the past decade. Its silence over infighting in the MVA was meaningful.

Others too important

All said and done, the rebels, independents and small parties in the contest are set to influence the results and the post-election cut-throat machinations. It was in the 1995 elections that this category of vote cutters and 45 independent winners had a major say in the making of the government. Also, why forget what had happened in 2019? When the undivided Shiv Sena pushed its pre-poll partner BJP away despite winning together a decisive mandate, the BJP had made a government with the undivided NCP's Ajit Pawar, who returned within three days. Later, Sena joined hands with the NCP and Congress to form an MVA government headed by Uddhav Thackeray. Two and a half years later, Shinde broke the Sena to become a CM with BJP's support, and a year after, Ajit Pawar split NCP to be part of Mahayuti. No wonder, the 2024 Assembly elections hold too many foreseen and unforeseen things in its belly.

36
No of Assembly seats in Mumbai