Maharashtra assembly elections 2024: Could Maharashtra Navnirman Sena candidates be game-changers?

Raj Thackeray. Pic/PTI

The upcoming Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 are stirring up excitement, anticipation, and speculation. Among the key questions on everyone's mind is the role of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and its leader, Raj Thackeray, in shaping the election results. Will MNS candidates gain significant traction, and can they sway outcomes in key constituencies? Historically, the MNS has made its mark as a party focused on a Marathi identity, but the party has struggled to maintain a strong legislative presence. However, with evolving strategies and new alliances, the party's impact in the 2024 elections could be more influential than before.

Founded in 2006 by Raj Thackeray, a prominent figure in Maharashtra's political landscape, the MNS initially gained popularity with a strong pro-Marathi and regional focus. Over the years, however, the party faced challenges, with its vote base shrinking as voters shifted to larger parties like the Shiv Sena, the BJP, and the Congress. Raj Thackeray, known for his charisma and oratory skills, continues to be a voice for Marathi identity and local employment. In 2019, the MNS rebranded itself with a new saffron flag and redefined its stance on Hindutva, indicating a shift that might have implications in 2024.

Election strategy

"MNS has always been seen as a voice for the Marathi community, but now it's clear the party is broadening its agenda," says political analyst Abhay Deshpande. He noted, "Their emphasis on local employment and infrastructure development, combined with a strong Hindutva stance, could help them appeal to a broader audience this time."

In an election where every vote matters, the MNS could become a "kingmaker" in close races by splitting votes from other major players. Given the shifting alliances in Maharashtra, especially with factions emerging within the Shiv Sena and NCP, MNS candidates might be able to capture seats by positioning themselves as a third choice for Marathi voters dissatisfied with the major parties.

"Raj Thackeray has a unique appeal - he connects with voters who feel overlooked by mainstream politics," says Shiv Sena (UBT) supporter from Girgaon. He remarked, "If the MNS secures even a small share of votes in these elections, it could impact the expected results for Shiv Sena and BJP candidates."

The Congress and NCP, too, have traditionally attracted votes in Marathi-dominated regions, but these areas may now see a swing if the MNS campaigns aggressively.

Will MNS form alliances?

As of now, there is speculation but no confirmed alliances. However, even without a formal alliance, MNS's presence could create a ripple effect, influencing other parties' tactics. If Raj Thackeray chooses to align with a major party, it could significantly alter the power dynamics.

"Raj Thackeray has always been a wildcard in Maharashtra politics," says Abhay Deshpande. "Even if he doesn't form an official alliance, his candidates could drive close contests, especially in regions where the margins have historically been narrow."

Core support base and challenges

While MNS has gained attention, it still faces challenges in mobilising a consistent voter base. The Marathi identity, once its primary platform, now competes with broader state and national issues that voters prioritise, such as economic stability, job opportunities, and inflation. Whether MNS can resonate with younger voters and address their concerns remains a critical question.

"Raj Thackeray's vision for Maharashtra has always resonated with some segments of society, but the MNS needs to establish itself as a credible alternative in policy and governance," Roshan Sangle, a Dadar resident said. He also mentioned, "While their Hindutva rebranding might draw in new supporters, they must offer practical and clear solutions to address daily issues."

MNS speaks

MNS Vice President Yashwant Killedar said that the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has continuously strived to uphold Marathi identity and culture and will continue to do so. He expressed, "To preserve Maharashtra's traditions, culture, Marathi festivals, and the essence of the Marathi spirit, we now need Raj Thackeray's leadership."

"In urban areas, the MNS has a strong presence, so the party will impact the vote share. MNS is positioned to be a decisive factor. In pro-Marathi regions, opposition candidates are understandably concerned about MNS dividing the votes," he told Mid-Day.

Speaking about the MNS fielding candidates against Mahayuti candidates, Killedar said, "Most of the constituencies where MNS has put up candidates have a higher Marathi population, so candidates from other parties will be on edge. With the MNS in the fray, many political equations will shift. We aren't backing down at all."

Will MNS win any seats?

Political analyst Abhay Deshpande stated, "Since the MNS has a strong presence in Mumbai, Pune, and Nashik, we can expect a significant impact on the vote share in these areas. Candidates like Amit Thackeray from Mahim, Bala Nandgaonkar from Sewri, and Raju Patil from Kalyan have a higher likelihood of winning. However, the MNS may secure only single-digit seats in the assembly polls."

"It appears unlikely that the MNS will have a major influence on the outcome of the assembly elections. However, the MNS will stay aligned with the Mahayuti, particularly the BJP. Previously, they had only one MLA, Raju Patil, but now there's a chance they may secure more seats," Deshpande said.

Final thoughts

The Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 promise to be highly competitive, with shifting alliances and strong regional dynamics. The MNS has the potential to shape the electoral outcome, especially if it can successfully tap into Marathi pride while addressing broader social issues. Raj Thackeray's charisma and ability to connect with voters have remained steady assets for the MNS. His focus on regional issues, paired with a new ideological approach, may allow the MNS to gain traction in a few constituencies and influence the power play among larger parties.

As the elections draw closer, the MNS's campaign, strategies, and possible alliances will be closely watched. While it may not emerge as a dominant force in terms of seat count, the MNS could still play a pivotal role by influencing the voter base of the Shiv Sena, BJP, Congress, and NCP. Whether this influence is transformative or merely a ripple will ultimately depend on Raj Thackeray's ability to adapt his message and mobilise his support base effectively in 2024.