How will smaller political parties impact Maharashtra assembly elections 2024?

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The Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024 promise to be a pivotal event in the state's political history. While the big players - Shiv Sena (various factions), BJP, Congress, and factions of NCP - are expected to dominate the headlines, the role of smaller political parties will be critical in shaping the final outcome. Their influence, though not always visible in statewide tallies, can disrupt equations in key constituencies and force larger parties to address localised concerns.

Regional players in the spotlight:

Smaller parties like the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi (VBA), All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), and Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), and other local entities, have carved niches in Maharashtra's diverse political landscape. Their focused agendas, regional appeals, and the ability to target specific communities or issues often resonate with voters disillusioned with mainstream parties.

"The strength of smaller parties lies in their ability to speak directly to the aspirations of neglected groups. Whether they win or not, they shift the conversation," said political analyst Abhay Deshpande said.

What leaders say about the role of smaller parties:

Maharashtra Congress Chief Spokesperson Atul Londhe stated that smaller parties are unlikely to have a significant impact on the results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024.

"People are aware that the BJP wins due to vote division. However, they have become more aware and are now avoiding such divisions. Voters are casting their ballots for the candidates they want to see win. Therefore, I don't believe smaller parties will have any impact on the election results," Londhe said.

He expressed confidence that the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) will secure a victory in the 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections. "The MVA will win the elections comfortably and form the government in the state," Londhe said.

Shiv Sena spokesperson and deputy leader Sheetal Mhatre stated that smaller parties will not have a major impact on the elections. "Smaller parties might win one or three seats, but they will only be important if the tally doesn't add up. So, I don't believe these parties will have any significant impact," she said.

She said that the Mahayuti will win the elections with a majority. "We have observed the rise in women's participation in the voting process, which reflects their approval of the government's initiatives for them. We are confident that we will win this election with a majority," Mhatre said.

Vote splitting:

Smaller parties often act as vote-splitters, especially in constituencies where larger parties have a narrow margin. For instance, AIMIM's targeted appeal among Muslim voters could challenge Congress-NCP's traditional voter base.

While the VBA, under Prakash Ambedkar, has a strong Dalit and OBC support base, focusing on caste equity and economic justice. These resonate with specific demographics and could compel major parties to adjust their manifestos.

"VBA contested 193 seats in this election. The major vote base of VBA is SC (especially the Mahar community across Maharashtra) along with a section of the Muslim community as well (like in Akola). The VBA could not gather much traction in the 2024 Lok Sabha election which is quite evident from the fact that its Vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections dropped from 7.1 per cent to 3.6 per cent in Maharashtra. After this performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the VBA founder Prakash Ambedkar started a state-wide rally called "Aarakshan Bachao Rally" on July 25, 2024. The idea was to fight for the reservation of SC/ST and OBCs in Maharashtra and signal to Manoj Jarange Patil that OBC's share of the reservation would not be less," Political analyst Ritwik Mehta said.

"The VBA is always seen as a vote cutter in Maharashtra which eventually helps the BJP in many places where SC and Muslim populations in very high. Thus, VBA contesting at SC-dominated seats comes out to be a triangular fight between the Mahayuti, MVA, and VBA. There are more than 200 ACs in Maharashtra where SC population is more than 10%, thus increasing the significance of the VBA," he added.

Mehta further said that the VBA has given Mahar community candidates in Vidarbha, Mumbai, North Maharashtra, and Western Maharashtra while it has given candidates from Dhangar, Vanjari, and Mali communities in the Marathwada region. "Thus, the VBA will might help the Mahayuti in Vidharbha, Mumbai, North Maharashtra and Western Maharashtra whereas damage a section of the vote bank of Mahayuti in Marathwada as Dhangar, Vanjari and Malis vote for the Mahayuti (BJP to be specific)," he said.

"Similar to the VBA as well, the AIMIM also cuts into the Muslim votes, thus diverting them towards the INC or NCP (SCP) and eventually helping the BJP (MahaYuti). In the 2024 Assembly elections, the AIMIM contested around 20 seats. The voting pattern of the Muslim community has changed in the past few years as the community has also come to know that voting for the AIMIM eventually means helping the BJP. Therefore, its relevance in Maharashtra is lesser than the independent Muslim candidates. Also, it was quite evident in the Maharashtra elections this time (both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections) that the Muslim community will vote only for MVA as was announced by various Muslim community leaders," Mehta said.

He feels that independent candidates are different from the regional parties but very important at the same time. "It is a known fact that political parties either fund strong leaders to contest as independent candidates to cut into the rival's vote share Or some leaders contest independently because they don't get a ticket. Before the Assembly elections, the Mahayuti and MVA were busy engaging with their party leaders who filled up the form as an independent. There are many constituencies where MVA is going to face damage because of their independent candidates while the MahaYuti managed its independent candidates quite well," Mehta said.

"Let's understand from examples: Ramtek AC where the official candidate of MVA is Vishal Barbate from SS (UBT) and Mahayuti's candidate is Ashish Jaiswal (the incumbent MLA). On this AC, the INC leader Rajendra Mulak is contesting as an independent, and surprisingly, the whole INC cadre is backing Rajendra Mulak. The fight is between Ashish Jaiswal and Rajendra Mulak and thus MVA's candidate will surely lose. But if Rajendra Mulak wins, he will then join the MVA. Even in the BJP, the daughter of Vijay Kumar Gavit, Dr Hina Gavit is contesting as an Independent from Akkalkuwa constituency," he said.

He further said that apart from this, other regional parties are BSP, GGP (which is more relevant in Vidarbha only), Prahar Jan Shakti Party which is relevant more in Amravati district, RPI (A) (has more hold in Mumbai region and supports MahYuti), Samajwadi Party (more relevance in Mumbai).

Negotiation power:

Smaller parties often negotiate with bigger coalitions for seat-sharing arrangements, leveraging their influence in specific regions. "Their localised strength often determines the terms of the alliance," said political analyst Abhay Deshpande.

Challenges for smaller parties:

While their impact is undeniable, smaller parties face significant hurdles, including limited resources and the perception of being "vote-cutters."

"For these parties to sustain their relevance, they must focus on building a consistent grassroots presence beyond election cycles," noted Abhay Deshpande.

Outlook for 2024:

The Maharashtra assembly elections 2024 could see smaller parties asserting themselves as kingmakers in tightly contested seats. Their ability to galvanise specific voter blocs and force larger players to address niche issues makes them indispensable to Maharashtra's political narrative.

As Maharashtra gears up for a high-stakes election, all eyes will be on how these smaller entities leverage their influence to challenge the traditional powerhouses and redefine the state's political landscape.