‘Careful, 4th wave may be knocking on our door’

mid-day’s report on March 6 had highlighted that travellers from Ukraine could be carriers of the virus; likely transmitters in New Delhi are over 25,000 returnees from Ukraine and eastern Europe

Is New Delhi becoming the new Covid-19 epicentre? Health experts say the recent surge in the number of cases in Delhi has become a matter of concern, hinting at the probability of a possible fourth wave if the situation is not brought under control soon.

China is already witnessing the fourth wave. This time, the epicentre is war-torn Ukraine, with cases spreading rapidly in the UK, Germany, China, South Korea, and New Delhi. The likely transmitters in New Delhi are over 25,000 returnees from Ukraine and eastern Europe during the evacuation exercise and further transmission through children returning to schools," said Dr Subhash Hira, professor of global health at the University of Washington-Seattle and advisor to WHO-TDR-Geneva.

mid-day in its article, ‘Need to test people coming in from Ukraine' dated March 6, had stated that considering the high Covid-19 infection rates in Ukraine (around 10 per cent) before the war, the chances of many of them being carriers of the infection to other countries cannot be ruled out.

Is Deltacron responsible?

"In March 2022, South Korea and China, having over 95-97 per cent of fully vaccinated citizens, acknowledged that their public health strategies for containing the virus have gone for a toss this time. The reason could be people discarded their masks in large numbers and did not follow Covid norms," Dr Hira said.

Performing genetic sequencing in 1:20 RT-PCR positive samples should serve the purpose of monitoring the emergence of variants and recombinants, say experts. File pic

"Looking at the clinical spectrum of diseases, comprising sore throat, respiratory distress, pneumonia, diarrhoea, and fatigue, experts speculate that the fourth wave could be caused by recombinant Deltacron or Omicron BA.2. If that be so, the clearance time of recombinant Deltacron from the human body can be longer for months and years," added Dr Hira.

"The recombinant variant Deltacron is more stable and it is formed to stay for the foreseeable future. The emergence of recombinant variants Deltacron and Omicron BA.2 should start to ring alarm bells across the world. The health systems should quickly alert populations to return to masks and physical distancing. What is missing in the government orders is the need to scale-up genetic surveillance in 12 national reference centres. Even performing genetic sequencing in 1:20 RT-PCR positive samples should serve the purpose of monitoring the emergence of variants and recombinants," Dr Hira concluded.

"If we see daily new cases of a few Indian cities in graphical form, we will understand that there is a slow decrease in Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Pune. In Mumbai, the condition is stable. But if you see in Delhi cases are now increasing slowly. We have to find out why there is a slow increase of cases in Delhi and also how many patients are having serious symptoms," said Dr Santosh Bansode, HOD Emergency Medicine, Wockhardt Hospitals.

Follow Covid guidelines

Dr Wiqar Shaikh, professor of Medicine, Grant Medical College and Sir JJ Group of Hospitals quoted data from Medinexus on April 16, 2022, wherein Delhi reported 466 new Covid-19 cases, an increase of 26 per cent as compared to April 15, while Maharashtra reported 98 new cases compared to 69 on the previous day and India reported 1,150 new cases, an increase of 350 cases when compared with April 15.

Dr Shaikh emphasized the need to bring back mandatory Covid appropriate behaviour, including the compulsion to use masks outdoors and social distancing. He expressed concern regarding the lackadaisical attitude of people during the festive season and said that we have witnessed huge crowds everywhere across the country with impunity.

"The sudden spike in Covid cases in New Delhi and neighbouring states should serve as a warning to citizens staying in major metros like Mumbai. The cause of this is probably the emergence of newer variants. Diligent use of a mask in public places with a continuation of Covid appropriate behaviour is the best way to protect ourselves," said Dr Ketan Vagholkar, professor of Surgery at DY Patil Medical College.

466
No. of Covid cases reported in Delhi on April 16