Heavier than ever, Eknath Shinde tests BJP’s patience

Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde. Pic/PTI

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's ‘Mala halkyat gheu naka (don't take me lightly)' remark has gone a long way at least, in his seat-sharing talks with the Bharatiya Janata Party and Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar). Made during his Dussehra rally speech, the statement was interpreted as a caution for all who cross the CM's path to the Assembly elections. The allies, too, are proving to be a hurdle for Shinde's bid to get as many seats of the 288-member Lower House. While this piece was being written, Shinde hadn't conceded to the demand, pressed hard by the BJP to settle for the numbers less than he had demanded. Reports from New Delhi said that he was still being convinced by the BJP's top leadership. The deal for Shinde could be compensation in the future. In what form? We don't know yet.

Shinde's confidence stems from his party's Lok Sabha performance which was better than the big brother BJP. His candidates largely remained unscathed by factors such as Maratha's rage that went against the BJP, which dutifully managed to transfer its vote share to the CM's party. It could be the same factor, among others, that Shinde is riding high on, and unwilling to scale down his demand. In the past two years, Shinde has wielded power and used resources to consolidate his position, knowing that the BJP cannot do without him, at least in 2024 (BJP's Amit Shah has told the party's rank and file that it would be 100 per cent BJP in 2029, but the pact will stay this year). Another ally, Ajit Pawar's NCP, which was supposed to be BJP's Plan ‘B', is in the doldrums. It is fast losing its satraps to the Sharad Pawar faction. Ajit Pawar may have said that those who wouldn't get poll tickets from him have left him, the outgoing doesn't hold any good for his faction. Sharad Pawar has been wearing a smile that is laced with resolve.

If Shinde is flexing muscles on the Mahayuti side, the Congress is using all pressure tactics on the other side to get the Uddhav Thackeray Sena to cave in. But there is a difference between Shinde and Uddhav. Shinde is very much likely to reach an agreement, if not today but tomorrow, with the BJP for obvious reasons. It is unlikely that he will wage an open war against the BJP that made him what he is today and is powerful enough to break him if things go extreme. For Uddhav Thackeray, it is yet another battle of survival. Despite Sena (UBT) being a weakling in the MVA, he has taken on the Congress, the biggest Lok Sabha winner of Maharashtra, upfront. He made the Congress leadership visit his residence to patch up when seat-sharing talks went awry. Congress leaders say that Thackeray's insistence on having more and specific seats defies logic and electoral merit. They fear that, if their high command lets Thackeray get what he wants, it will lead to Mahayuti's advantage.

Candidates told to get going

It is complicated on both sides of the two alliances as of now. Clarity should come within two to three days. There are many seats that face seat-sharing issues. Mostly those who decided on the ‘sitting getting' formula are waiting for the official announcement of candidates. Some candidates are foregone conclusions and they will be there in the field in any case. Like in BJP and other parties, those certain to contest have been told unofficially to get going for the nomination process, which starts on October 22. The candidates will have to prepare election affidavits and keep other essential documents ready for filing nominations. To be on the safer side, dummies will also be asked to file papers. Those not sure of getting tickets will also submit their applications. The powerful among them will stay in the contest and wear the tag of the rebel.

Khichdi of sorts

The ensuing elections would see a host of candidates, including rebels, in the fray, because no major party will be able to accommodate all aspirants from where they want to contest. The space crunch is unprecedented. There are only 288 seats, and two three-party alliances sharing it with their smaller allies. Then there is MNS, Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, third front of Bacchu Kadu-Raju Shetti-Chhatrapati Sambhaji, AIMIM, Mahadev Jankar's Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, Hitendra Thakur's BVA, Manoj Jarange Patil's Maratha front and more, who will be crowding the electoral platform. Political observers strongly feel that this year, the independents will have a field day like the 1995 elections, in which they counted a whopping 45. Maharashtra politics will be in for many more twists and turns if the voters don't decide the winner decisively.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore
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