Biggies have bitten the dust in the past. Who will today?

Heavyweights like Vilasrao Deshmukh (left) and Anil Parab, too, had faced defeat in the MLC polls. Pics/File, Twitter

There is no point in predicting the results in Monday's MLC polls. Not because the winners have already been decided, but because these elections, whenever not held unopposed, have sprung some stunners.

The uninitiated, too, will be surprised to know that one of the most successful Maharashtra CMs, the late Vilasrao Deshmukh, had lost the MLC cliff-hanger in 1996 by 0.59 votes as an independent. In 2010, the sitting Transport Minister Anil Parab couldn't win despite garnering eight more first-preference votes than the Congress's winning candidate Vijay Sawant. Leftist veteran Ganpatrao Deshmukh had succumbed to cross-voting in 1996. In 2008, Congress's Sudhakar Gangane was beaten by infighting in the party, which had sufficient votes to get him elected.

The 1996, the elections were held for nine vacancies. Vilasrao had lost his Assembly seat of Latur in 1995 and was denied the MLC ticket by the Congress. He rebelled and approached the Sena for support. The counting stretched too long because all preference votes were counted. Three years later, the Congress made Vilasrao the CM of the alliance government. When asked, he would say, "I felt bad after the MLC loss. But in the end, it was a turning point in my political career. Had I won that election, I wouldn't have become the CM."

It is almost a decade later that the MLC polls promise so much drama, uncertainty and a challenge before the government to get its six nominees elected. Decided through polling, the recently concluded Rajya Sabha election for six vacancies exposed the chinks in the MVA's weak armour, thanks to the BJP's Trojan horses - the independents. BJP's Devendra Fadnavis has assured a repeat by winning the fifth seat, but he too admitted that it won't be an easy task.

Sena bonds

Addressing party workers on the Sena's foundation day on Sunday, CM Uddhav Thackeray said that everyone knew who had betrayed their RS candidate. "But this time, our victory is certain. None of our members cross-voted in the Rajya Sabha polls, but we know who betrayed us. Things will unfold as time passes," he said in the presence of the party's MLAs who have been holed up in a five-star hotel in the city ahead of Monday's polling.

Thackeray tried to explain to the Sainiks why veterans like Divakar Raote and Subhash Desai had been rested in the MLCs polls for encouraging young blood. One of the Sena candidates, Sachin Ahir, is not an original Shiv Sainik, but came from the NCP before the 2019 elections. The other nominee is a diehard Sainik, a tribal from Nandurbar, Amsha Padvi. "We don't have a gaddar in our ranks and file," Thackeray added.

Testing times again

The ruling parties have been preparing for a comeback in the MLC polls, but their efforts are not cohesive. The results on Monday alone can fathom who stands true on the parameters of stability, unity and trust between the ruling partners and their associates. Fewer in official voter numbers, the BJP will be assessed again for creating unrest in the ruling camp, which is extra cautious following the RS lesson.

People in the know say that the Sena isn't taking any chances and doesn't want to part with votes, first and second preference to its MVA allies. The Nationalist Congress Party bears the responsibility of seeing the high-profile former BJP minister Eknath Khadse through, while fighting the notion that the BJP will do anything to outdo its baiter's rehabilitation in the legislature. NCP's top leader and deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar has been facing allegations of encouraging his loyal independents to cross-vote in the RS polls. But he has remained unfazed and has kept the media on tenterhooks by predicting yet another tight contest.

Basking in the RS glory for a while, the Congress has been left to fend for itself. Its two MLC candidates, one very resourceful and the other not so much, have their fingers crossed. Political circles have been wondering why the Congress high-command chose to give two candidates when the party didn't have adequate numbers. On the punter's scale, the Congress is placed lower than all others in the race.

Dharmendra Jore is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @dharmendrajore

Send your feedback to mailbag@mid-day.com