01 June,2011 06:52 AM IST | | Pathikrit Sengupta
Much like our convivial neighbour Pakistan, Yemen has always been said to be teetering on the brink of subsidence. That lifelong military man (and rumoured whiskey smuggler) Ali Abdullah Saleh managed to hold the country together for so long in the face of terrorism, irredentist movements, insurgency and, recently, pro-democracy protesters demanding his resignation, is staggering. Elected president of what was then the Yemen Arab Republic in 1978, Saleh has administered the country in one form or the other for about three decades, a task he compares to "dancing on the heads of snakes." Well, looks like he missed a step.
The latest uprising in Yemen began in February this year, and scrimmages with police and pro-government supporters have steadily intensified. As the Yemeni government escalates its war against protesters seeking Saleh's ouster, Islamist groups in the southern part of the country are exploiting the power vacuum caused by the maelstrom to gain local and regional ascendancy.
Meanwhile, the embattled president has once again reneged on a promise to abdicate, claiming that al-Qaeda and other Islamic extremists would tyrannise the country if he left. However, analysts believe deep divisions among his opponents are likely to ensure that Saleh's ruling General People's Congress (GPC) will retain power whether or not he is around to lead it.
To understand the situation, we must understand the region. Yemen is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the Arab World, with 65 per cent employment rate, dwindling natural resources, a young populace and increasing population growth. And poverty can help breed extremism.
The United States and Saudi Arabia, both targets of attacks by Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, are concerned that chaos is emboldening the group. A prime example is the case of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the man accused of trying to bomb an American plane with explosives in his underwear.
Islamist militants this weekend took control of the coastal town of Zinjibar in the southern province of Abyan, seizing banks, government offices and the security headquarters. The capture of Zinjibar followed the hostile takeover of the city of Jaar in March. In recent days, virulent barrages have broken out between Saleh's security forces and fighters loyal to Sadiq al-Ahmar, the head of the Hashid tribal federation, Yemen's second-largest such grouping. Saleh is technically an affiliate of the Hashids, through his Sanhan tribe. But family ties only go so far in Yemen.
