02 November,2009 08:36 AM IST | | Alifiya Khan
Experts say swine flu epidemic could abate by the time Serum Institute of India's vaccine hits market
Many experts doubt that the Rs 40 crore spent so far on developing a swine flu vaccine, which is expected to hit the market in the last week of March, will amount to much. "We expect the swine flu epidemic to enter its second phase in winter, and are preparing for it on a war footing. This is when we will need the vaccine. By summer, the virus is expected to lose its potency. No one knows how useful the vaccine will be then," said Dr Pradeep Awate, a senior official in the State Health Directorate, who is also a coordinator in the state government's swine flu cell.
Another senior official, requesting anonymity, said the virus could also mutate by March, thus, rendering the vaccine ineffectual.
"If the virus changes its form next year, we will have to develop another vaccine. Besides, if the incidence of H1N1 infections is expected to be higher in winter due to falling temperature, the vaccine should be out now, and not in summer,' said the official.
Counterpoint
Experts associated with the Serum Institute of India (SII), however, disagreed that the vaccine would not be useful after March. "The vaccine would be needed even later if the H1N1 virus stays around in the country," said Adar Poonawalla, executive director (operations) of SII, which is developing the vaccine.
"Viruses thrive during the rains. We are certain the vaccine will be useful then. It is true that Pune needs it now, but it will also be useful to people who live in areas that have not been exposed to the H1N1 virus, and have no immunity to it," said Dr Ashok Mehta, the joint director, state health services, who retired on Saturday.
