Home-grown air quality model SAFAR gets global acceptance

Transportation contributes about 31 per cent of PM2.5 in Mumbai’s air

SAFAR, a home-grown system that provides air quality in near real time and its forecast, has been accepted internationally. The recognition will likely be a big boost for air quality forecasting across India.

The System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting And Research (SAFAR), mandated under the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP), gives out air quality data for Delhi, Mumbai, Pune and Ahmedabad. The findings of its research paper ‘India's maiden air quality forecasting framework for megacities of divergent environments: The SAFAR-project' were published in peer-reviewed international Elsevier Journal ‘Environmental Modelling and Software' on Tuesday.

SAFAR's founder project director Dr Gufran Beig, said the framework is a one-stop solution for air quality management leading up to mitigation, and also helps formulate micro specific air action plans based on robust science. "SAFAR's forecasting model is comparable to the framework by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA)," Beig said in a media release.

India plans to reduce particulate matter (PM) or fine particles in the air by 20-30 per cent by 2024, keeping 2017 as the base year. Air pollution is likely to reduce the life expectancy of about 40 per cent Indians by more than nine years, said a recent report.

"High population density due to urbanization is the main reason which directly or indirectly drives the PM2.5 emissions in all four metropolises," said Dr Beig. The most dominating emission source of PM2.5 is transportation whose share is 41 per cent in Delhi followed by 40 per cent in Pune, 35 per cent in Ahmedabad and 31 per cent in Mumbai.

Dr Beig said a SAFAR-like framework has been developed by a few developed countries and is non-existent in the developing world. Explaining how this forecasting could benefit all, Dr Beig said, "Using this forecasting model, all urban local bodies can also issue timely health advisories publicly, to alert citizens on 'bad air' days, which will help save vulnerable groups from severe health impacts of air pollution."