Maharashtra political turmoil: The one masterstroke that could have averted crisis

The stubborn stand the Shiv Sena took by not supporting royal family scion Sambhaji Raje Bhosale in the Rajya Sabha elections played a major role in the present crisis in the party as well as the MVA government, say political analysts. Had the Sena backed Bhosale and not fielded own Sanjay Pawar, all candidates would have been elected and the mood of the MLAs and independents would not have turned sour.

BJP smelled blood following Sena's setback it RS polls. Then the Congress repeated a similar blunder in the Council polls and fell flat on the face. Successive setbacks in a matter of few days were enough to spur the rebels to choose their own path with generous help from the BJP.

As the drama involving Shiv Sena MLAs continues, tensions have increased in the Congress after five MLAs were also allegedly not in touch with their party on Tuesday. In short, the Maha Vikas Aghadi put the government at stake just for a seat each in the Rajya Sabha and the Council, particularly when there was no guarantee of winning either.

Sambhaji Raje Bhosale was backed by NCP

Blaming the leadership for the crisis in the MVA, a political analyst told mid-day, "There have been problems been since the formation of the government. It is not clear why the Sena did not take any note of it. The BJP has been trying to overthrow the government for the last two and a half years, but it didn't succeed. They targeted leaders of each of the three parties of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in which they finally succeeded."

The analyst said, "Attempts were made to bring down the government with the leaders of these three parties before COVID, but the operation was not carried out due to lack of strength as the Sena leader had 12 MLAs, the Congress leader had three and the NCP leader had only two. Then came Corona and after that MVA together defeated BJP in some elections and the government was not affected."

Why is Shinde upset?

Shinde was in the race for the chief minister's post when MVA was to be formed, but once it happened, he was cut to size, say supporters of the urban development minister. Shinde apparently could sign a file only after the green signal from the Thackeray family. Aaditya Thackeray's team was so important that Shinde was allegedly removed from the decision-making process. Apart from this, his most trusted aide and forest minister Sanjay Rathore was accused of abetment in the Pooja Chavan suicide case and he was left to fend for himself. However, sources said, the biggest reason is the communication gap and the role of Sanjay Raut. Shinde apparently had not had any direct contact with the CM for a long time.

What happens now

In the present circumstances, Uddhav Thackeray may try placate Shinde by making him the CM, but he will need to convince the Congress and NCP about it. Another option is to form an alliance with the BJP with Devendra Fadnavis as the CM and Shinde as his deputy.

If the rebel Sena legislators resign from the party, this government may become a minority, paving the rule for a President's rule in the state. Then it won't be surprising if the BJP-led Centre calls for fresh elections in the state after the civic body polls.