Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will defections impact the voters’ decision?

As Maharashtra heads into the most evenly poised assembly elections in recent memory, voters are grappling with an issue that has come to dominate the political landscape of the state over the past few years - politicians switching parties and alliances.

Several politicians have jumped ship based on who they felt had the edge in the general and state polls in 2014 and 2019.

The chaos and confusion increased after Eknath Shinde in 2022 staged a rebellion and walked away with a large number of legislators from the Shiv Sena, then headed by Uddhav Thackeray, sending shockwaves to Maharashtra.

His rebellion sparked a series of defections within Shiv Sena, leading to the splitting of the party into two factions - one led by Shinde and the other by Thackeray. He took oath as the Chief Minister and formed the government along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and also claimed the Shiv Sena's symbol and name on the grounds that he had the maximum number of legislators with him. The Election Commission of India also decided that his faction was indeed the ‘real' Shiv Sena.

A year later, the story repeated, but this time, the party that split was the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), founded by Sharad Pawar in 1999 after he left the Congress, which was then headed by Sonia Gandhi. Pawar's nephew Ajit, who had caused a stir in 2019 too when he briefly aligned with the BJP-led coalition, walked away with a large number of legislators and party workers. Unlike 2019, when he ended his rebellion in three days, this time, Ajit continued to fight the state polls in alliance with the BJP and Shinde-led Shiv Sena.

There is a lot of criticism over these two developments in the state, which was one of the reasons why Thackeray and Pawar's parties, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), did well in the Lok Sabha elections, held earlier this year.

Now with the Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 scheduled for November 20, this issue is likely to come to the fore. Ahead of the state polls too, several leaders have switched parties after they were denied tickets.

Voters have repeatedly questioned how politicians can join parties or alliances that have diametrically opposite views to what they believed in for years.

Party hopping: Impact on voter

Voters are not thrilled about the frequent party-hopping witnessed in recent years. For many, it raises questions about loyalty, principles, and the integrity of politicians.

"I have always voted for Shiv Sena, but seeing leaders such as Eknath Shinde and other rebels leave for personal gains makes me question their intentions," says Nilesh Patil, a 45-year-old resident of Mumbai's Ghatkopar area. "We feel betrayed when politicians switch sides. Do they care about ideology? It's all about power and position for them."

Patil's sentiments are shared by many who feel that these political manoeuvres undermine the trust of the electorate.

"It's disheartening. Shiv Sena has always been a party of the people, but now it seems like it's just another political game," says Priya Deshmukh, a 38-year-old homemaker from Mankhurd. "Politicians don't care about us. They care only about what benefits them."

However, Swapnil Tele, an IT professional from Kalyan, believes that Shinde's faction is the real Shiv Sena. "The Shiv Sena and Congress had exactly opposite ideologies. How could Uddhav Thackeray ally with the Congress, a party that his father, the late Balasaheb Thackeray, opposed throughout his lifetime? When Shinde and the other legislators felt that the core ideologies of the party were being compromised, they went with their original ally: the BJP. We have traditionally been Shiv Sena voters and the CM has done good work. We'll continue to back him," said the 28-year-old.

Sudha Shankar Deshpande, a 56-year-old Pune resident, said, "When you change sides so frequently, it shows you don't have a true commitment to the people or the cause you once stood for. While we despise politicians jumping ship, the fact is that there are other issues also that need to be taken into consideration before we cast our vote."

Strategy or greed: Why has the state seen so many political diversions

For political leaders, party-hopping is often seen as a strategic move. Some argue that shifting parties allows them to align with more powerful or dominant political forces, ensuring political survival and access to resources. It is also a reflection of the changing dynamics of Maharashtra's political landscape.

"The shifting allegiances of these leaders are often a result of the changing dynamics within the state's political ecosystem. Leaders frequently move to parties they think will help them secure power," says Anand Deshpande, a political analyst from Pune.

Manish Ranjan, a political analyst from the national capital, says that Maharashtra's political landscape is very different from the rest of the country and it is difficult to call the election outcome here. "Even after the BJP and Shiv Sena had allied in 2019 before the polls, Thackeray took a U-turn and demanded the chief ministership after the BJP failed to secure a majority on its own. While individual politicians leave parties for ticket or ministerial berths, alliances are also broken for the same reasons as Thackeray later became the CM with the help of the Congress and NCP. This is a very difficult election to predict. And after the predictions went wrong in the Lok Sabha and Haryana polls, no one can say with certainty on which alliance will the voter stand with.

Party or ideology? Is the voter loyal?

Despite the widespread dissatisfaction with party-switching, there remains a large base of voters who continue to follow their leaders. Voter loyalty, in many cases, transcends party affiliation and is tied to the personal popularity of individual politicians.

"Voters in my constituency support Eknath Shinde because of his long-standing relationship with the people, especially in the Thane area. His popularity isn't based on the party but his work on the ground," says Santosh Patil, 63, a retired government employee. "Voters tend to follow their local leaders, not the party they belong to. This is why leaders who switch parties often manage to retain their support base."

"I still support Shinde, even though he left Shiv Sena. He's a local leader who understands our issues. The ‘Ladki Bahin Yojana' will help him come back to power," says 42-year-old Shreekala Prabhakar, a resident of Malad.

As Maharashtra moves closer to election day, the big question remains: Will all these defections impact the electoral outcome?

Ranjan adds, "Voters will consider the ‘double engine' factor where a National Democratic Alliance government in the Centre and a Mahayuti regime in the state would be beneficial for Maharashtra's development. Voters are smart. Most voters believe that loyalties to parties and individuals mean nothing if they do not deliver. Especially for cities such as Mumbai and Pune, infrastructure development is of prime importance. Accessibility to funds from the Centre is crucial for such projects. I also do not believe that the NDA or Mahayuti failed to put up a good performance in the Lok Sabha polls owing to diversions. They just could not manage the narrative mechanisms that the Opposition had tactfully shaped. They also lacked on-ground campaigning, whereas MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) workers went to several villages across the state for the campaigns. If this time the Mahayuti works on these issues, it will be too tight an election to call."