Maharashtra assembly elections 2024: AIMIM may split MVA votes, boost BJP in polls

Could the All India Majlis-e-Ittihadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) candidate potentially draw votes away from the MVA and inadvertently benefit the BJP-Mahayuti in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly elections? This is a growing concern among MVA supporters. If AIMIM decides to contest in Muslim-dominated constituencies, the chances of MVA candidates winning could diminish due to a division of Muslim votes. Key areas in Mumbai with substantial Muslim populations, such as Chandivli, Bandra East and West, Kurla, Anushakti Nagar, Malad West, Dindoshi, Shivaji Nagar-Mankhurd, Jogeshwari East and West, Versova, and Andheri West, could see vote splitting if AIMIM fields candidates in these regions.

As the MVA remains uncertain about whether Shiv Sena (UBT) or Congress will field a candidate for the Versova Assembly seat, AIMIM leader Raees Lashkaria has already put up banners in the constituency, signalling that he may contest on an AIMIM ticket. This move, some say, could benefit the Mahayuti candidate.

It is said that AIMIM might field 15 candidates from Muslim-dominated constituencies in Mumbai. In both Mumbai and Maharashtra, such constituencies include Byculla, Versova, Bhiwandi, Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar (formerly known as Aurangabad), Chhatrapati Sambhaji Nagar Central, Dhule City, and Malegaon Central.

Ex-MLA and National Spokesperson of AIMIM, Waris Pathan, said, "We have already declared candidates for five Assembly seats in Maharashtra, one of which is the Versova Assembly seat from Mumbai. In the coming days, decisions regarding other seats will also be taken."

When asked if the AIMIM candidate would split the Muslim vote and help the Mahayuti, Pathan responded, "This is a false perception created by our opponents. Our party has always stood with all minorities. In Haryana, we didn't contest a single seat, yet Congress lost. So, it's wrong to say that our candidates will split minority votes."

Sumit Gavri, a supporter of the MVA from the Versova Assembly constituency, stated, "Versova has a significant Muslim population in areas like Versova, Millat Nagar, and Behrambag. If an AIMIM candidate enters the race, it could split the votes between the MVA and AIMIM, ultimately benefiting the Mahayuti candidate. As a result, the BJP candidate could secure a third consecutive win in this constituency."

Amey Sawant, a voter from the Versova Assembly, said, "He is a well-known figure in the constituency, and his candidacy will benefit the Mahayuti candidate as Muslim votes will be divided between AIMIM and Congress."

In the 2019 Aurangabad Lok Sabha election, AIMIM candidate Imtiaz Jaleel secured 3.41 lakh votes and finished as the runner-up. Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate Chandrakant Khaire came in third with 2.93 lakh votes.

Sandipanrao Bhumre of Shiv Sena's Eknath Shinde faction, who secured 4.76 lakh votes, was the only Mahayuti candidate to win in Marathwada. In the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly elections, AIMIM, led by Asaduddin Owaisi, won two seats - Dhule City and Malegaon Central - out of the 44 it contested.

Notably, AIMIM lost both the Byculla and Aurangabad Central Assembly seats, where it had sitting MLAs. In Byculla, incumbent Waris Pathan was defeated by Yamini Jadhav of Shiv Sena, and in Aurangabad Central, Pradeep Jaiswal of Shiv Sena won by defeating AIMIM candidate Naseeruddin Taquiuddin Siddioqui who was the runner-up.

2014 Assembly elections

In the 2014 elections, AIMIM contested 24 Assembly seats with a total vote share of 0.93 per cent, while its vote share in the constituencies it contested was 13.16 per cent. In both elections, AIMIM won two seats - Aurangabad Central and Byculla in 2014, and Dhule City and Malegaon Central in 2019.

2019 Assembly elections

In 2019, AIMIM's total vote share across 44 contested Assembly seats in Maharashtra was 1.34 per cent, while its vote share in the constituencies it contested was 9.24 per cent.

2024 Lok Sabha elections

In 2024 LS elections, AIMIM contested seats from Aurangabad, Mumbai North Central, Pune, Osmanabad, and Bhiwandi. AIMIM candidate Imtiaz Jaleel, who contested from the Aurangabad constituency, came in second with 3.41 lakh votes, while candidates from Mumbai North Central, Pune, Osmanabad, and Bhiwandi secured far fewer votes: 1,531, 860, 2,060, and 1,741, respectively.

AIMIM's 2019 Assembly Results in Mumbai:

>> Byculla: Waris Yusuf Pathan came in second with 31,157 votes (25.6%)
>> Malad West: Ismail Shaikh received 818 votes (0.5%)
>> Dharavi: Manoj Sansare secured 13,099 votes (11.2%)
>> Andheri West: Arif Moinuddin Shaikh received 7,038 votes (5.4%)