Lok Sabha elections 2024: Even in MVA, ticket for a Muslim a distant dream

The Muslim aspirants in the Congress (and MVA) don't see a ray of hope this election as far as getting a Lok Sabha seat is concerned. Mumbai North-Central constituency, which is the most thickly populated with the community's votes, may be an aberration if former minister Arief Naseem Khan gets an opportunity.

Statistically, every fifth person in Mumbai is a Muslim because of the community's massive presence in certain pockets and the community has nearly 12 per cent population in the state. And since no other MVA constituent is expected to give Muslims a ticket, all hopes are pinned on the Congress. The Shiv Sena-UBT is unlikely to field a Muslim in the remaining five segments in its quota. In Mumbai, the Congress is expected to get only one seat - Mumbai North Central, whereas the remaining five will go to Sena (UBT).

Mumbai North-Central is still being discussed among the MVA allies. If it goes to the Congress (the insiders say they are getting it), the party has some highflyers on its mind for candidacy. Among the top contenders are actor and activist Swara Bhaskar and veteran actor-turned-politician Raj Babbar. However, since Babbar is being tipped for a constituency in Uttar Pradesh, where he had won earlier, Swara Bhaskar and a career politician Arief Naseem Khan remain in the intra-party contest. The BJP is in a wait-and-watch mode for this segment where its young member Poonam Mahajan is an incumbent MP.

Among other places, the Muslim leaders have their eyes on Dhule, Bhiwandi and Akola. There are several aspirants for these seats. Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar (formerly Aurangabad) is the only seat in Maharashtra that has a Muslim MP in AIMIM's Imtiyaz Jalil. Shiv Sena's former MP Chandrakant Khaire is contesting here. Dhule has not been cleared, and Bhiwandi is stuck in negotiations with NCP. If the Congress cedes Bhiwandi, its traditional seat, to the Sharad Pawar-led party, the Muslims here will lose all hope.

The Muslim community has a 12 per cent population in the state

In Akola, the Congress may not field a candidate if it supports the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi president Prakash Ambedkar's candidature. The move could be reciprocation for VBA's support to the Congress nominee Vikas Thakre who is pitted against the BJP stalwart Nitin Gadkari in Nagpur. In the past, Congress had fielded Muslim candidates in Akola on many occasions, including the 2019 elections. The BJP won Akola and VBA finished in second position. The Congress was relegated to the third spot.

Currently, the Congress has Urdu poet Imran Pratapgarhi as its Rajya Sabha MP, the only Muslim in either House from the state. But Pratapgarhi belongs to Uttar Pradesh. Party high command had chosen him over some deserving Muslim leaders/eminent personalities from Maharashtra. Former state minister, Hussain Dalwai was the last Maharashtrian Muslim MP in Rajya Sabha.

Talking of the past, a towering leader, the late AR Antulay, a Muslim from coastal Raigad district, had a glorious career. He became the state CM in 1980 and later served as union minister in various ministries. Undivided Sena had Sabir Shaikh, an MLA from Ambernath, as a Cabinet Minister from 1995 to 1999. Much later, former Congress minister, Abdul Sattar joined the undivided Sena and became a minister in the Thackeray cabinet. He left Thackeray to serve as a minister in the Eknath Shinde government.

Originally undivided NCP member, Hassan Mushraf continues to be the minister in the Shinde government. He is with Ajit Pawar. NCP had Nawab Malik and Fauzia Khan as ministers in the state. Majid Memon was NCP's Rajya Sabha member. Currently, Fauzian Khan, now with Sharad Pawar faction, is in the Rajya Sabha.

The Congress had always ensured to have Muslim ministers in the state government. The latest was Malvani MLA Aslam Shaikh. Before him, Arief Naseem Khan was a regular feature, along with Anees Ahmed in the Congress-NCP governments. Syed Ahmed from Mumbai was also a state cabinet minister. Not very long ago, the Muslim-dominated constituencies in Mumbai had saved the Congress' face in the 2019 Assembly elections by electing four MLAs. Naseem Khan had lost by a whisker. In the state's upper house, Wajahat Mirza represents the community.

A disenchanted Muslim leader from Mumbai expected the Congress to live and breathe the 'nyaya' slogan it has given this election. "If the party talks of nyaya (justice), it should ensure that Muslims get representation from Maharashtra. Where will Muslims go?" he asked, adding that the Congress should stop taking Muslims for granted. "The Congress and its secular partners assume that the Muslim in their ranks will stay back in the party even if they are not given tickets," he added.

In Mumbai, Muslim voters' count is 17-18 lakh. Mumbai North Central has 24 per cent Muslim voters. Mumbai North-East has 17 percent. Mumbai North West, South Central and South have nearly 19 per cent Muslim voters each.

17-18L
Approx no of Muslim voters in city