Rise in Covid-19 cases worrying, but premature to declare third wave: Scientists

Scientists and health experts say the current Coronavirus figures clearly indicate the need to be cautious, urge public to get vaccinated and strictly follow Covid-appropriate behaviour

The rise in fresh Covid-19 cases and the effective reproduction number — indication of how fast an infection spreads — in many states is worrying but don’t panic. Instead, mask up and get vaccinated, say experts, stressing that it is too early to declare the beginning of a new wave.

In fact, it could be that the second wave is not over, said scientists who have been closely monitoring India’s Covid-19 graph and have noted the surge in a few pockets.

In the northeast, for instance, cases have certainly not gone down to the levels being seen in Delhi and other northern states, said Gautam Menon, professor, Departments of Physics and Biology at Ashoka University in Haryana. “In that sense, we are likely seeing a continuation of the second wave rather than the initiation of a new wave distinct from the previous one.” 

On Wednesday, India recorded 42,625 fresh cases and 562 deaths, with a daily positivity rate of 2.31 per cent.

Also read: Covid-19: Mumbai’s cases rise once again, cross 300 mark

India’s Covid-19 situation is seemingly under control. However, 13 states/UTs recorded a surge in infections last week with Kerala reporting half of India’s daily new cases. The need of the hour is to press the accelerator on Covid-19 protocols.

“We need to be prepared but not overtly panic. It is time people mask up and get vaccinated,” Delhi-based physician-epidemiologist Chandrakant Lahariya said, adding that the numbers clearly indicated the need to be cautious.

Lahariya noted that cases are mostly being reported from states that had succeeded or avoided transmission earlier. Some of this, he said, is attributable to the high transmissibility of the Delta variant. 

He added, “We should not be looking at the proportion contributed by a state of the total new cases reported in India. That is not very helpful as we end up comparing the states with better reporting systems with states with weak disease surveillance systems.” 

Scientist Gautam Menon agreed that while it is too early to declare the third wave, the surge in cases is certainly worrying.

3,17,69,132
Total no. of Coronavirus cases in india so far

4,25,757
Total no. of deaths due to the virus in India so far

4,10,353
Total no. of active cases in India

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